MARY LEMBA
Lusaka
PRESIDENT Hakainde Hichilema is favoured to retain the presidency in Thursday’s general election, with the United Party for National Development (UPND) given a 70-80 percent chance of securing an outright first-round victory, according to a new analysis by the Public Affairs Research Institute in Africa (PARIAfrica).
The analysis puts the likelihood of a second round at 15-25 percent, citing opposition fragmentation and organisational weaknesses as key factors giving the ruling party an advantage.
The pre-election briefing, titled Zambia’s 13 August General Election: Assessing the Route to the Presidency, is authored by Southern Africa Coalition for Democracy and Accountability executive director Blessing Vava and
Masosote Institute for Political Economy director Tamuka Chirimambowa.
The analysis, published on August 8, 2026, shows that President Hichilema is favoured to cross the mandatory 50 percent threshold, although it cautions that the reasoning behind the projected victory is not as straightforward as incumbent popularity.
“A first-round UPND victory is the most likely single outcome,” the briefing says.
According to the report, one of the UPND’s biggest advantages is its extensive participation at parliamentary, mayoral and ward levels, which it says gives the ruling party a stronger capacity to mobilise voters and protect votes on poll day…
