DOREEN NAWA
Lusaka
AFRICA’S economic growth could decline by about 1.5 percent if the ongoing Middle-East conflict extends to six months, the African Development Bank has warned, highlighting growing risks to a continent already under economic strain.
Chief economist Kevin Urama said while the immediate shock may appear modest, a prolonged conflict would significantly weaken Africa’s economic outlook.
“If the war continues for up to six months, we might see about a 1.5 percent decline,” Prof Urama said, noting that a shorter three-month duration would result in a smaller 0.2 percentage point dip in growth.
The warning comes at a time when African economies are emerging as one of the most difficult months due to instability in global markets.
However, Prof Urama said the impact is not entirely negative.
He said oil-exporting African countries could benefit from rising global crude prices triggered by supply disruptions, potentially boosting export earnings and government revenues.
battling mounting debt burdens, declining official development assistance and reduced foreign direct investment inflows.
Prof Urama, who is also vice president for the Bank’s economic governance and knowledge management complex, said debt-service obligations are now consuming more than 31 percent of government revenues across the continent, severely limiting fiscal space for development and social spending.
In its latest projections, the bank estimates that Africa’s growth could still recover to 4.3 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2027, but cautions that these gains remain fragile amid global uncertainty and financial volatility.
Prof Urama further noted that recent geopolitical tensions have already weighed on economic performance, with March
“Still, the benefits are expected to be uneven, as oil-importing countries face higher fuel costs and inflationary pressures that could erode household incomes and economic stability,” Prof Urama said.
The AfDB has since urged African governments to strengthen economic resilience through improved domestic resource mobilisation, prudent debt management and structural reforms aimed at sustaining long-term growth…https://enews.daily-mail.co.zm/welcome/home
